A degree in mathematics isn’t needed to figure out District 2’s power rating formula to determine seedings for the basketball playoffs. But plenty of effort is, perhaps too much to worry game to game where teams will land.
“It’s the first year, so I don’t really know,” Crestwood coach Mark Atherton said. “If it shakes out at the end the way you think it should be, I don’t know. I don’t pay too much attention to it.”
Power ratings were used for the first time to determine the fields for the boys and girls playoffs, eliminating the open format where everyone was allowed in.
The formula gives more credit for victories against teams with better overall records. It is less harsh to teams which lose to quality opponents. Then the Weighted Winning Percentage of a team and its opponents are calculated using an unknown (at least to most coaches) multiplier to achieve a ranking.
Oh, Hazleton Area believed it would drop to the second seed in the District 2/4 Class 6A playoffs if it lost to Meyers last Friday. The Cougars lost and were right. Meyers, though, won three consecutive games against opponents with at least 15 wins yet didn’t budge from second in Class 4A.
“No one really knows,” Meyers coach Pat Toole said. “You need a doctorate in calculus to figure this thing out.”
All this math left just six of 43 teams out of the playoffs — Coughlin, Hanover Area, Honesdale, Lake-Lehman, MMI Prep and Western Wayne.
MMI, though, is in a unique situation. The Preppers will still play Susquehanna for the District 2 Class A championship. Susquehanna made the D2/11-A playoffs. If the Sabres are eliminated quick enough, they will play MMI on March 3 at Mohegan Sun Arena for the title. If not, the teams will meet March 6 at a neutral site.
MMI Prep coach Joe Flanagan said he’ll have his team practice every other day until they know when they are playing.
CLASS 6A
Defending Champ: none
Outlook: The 6A bracket is essentially a pared down version of the old 4A bracket and once again includes District 4’s Williamsport (18-4). Only one team advances to the state playoffs.
Hazleton Area (19-3) has some unfinished business left after a glitch in the old playoff format pitted the Cougars against Abington Heights in the semifinals last season. Both were considered the best teams in the field in 2015-16.
Hazleton Area defeated Williamsport 78-69 on Dec. 30 as part of its 18-game win streak. However, Hazleton Area’s path to a rematch became tougher with Friday night’s loss to Meyers. The Cougars dropped to the second seed and will play third-seeded Scranton (13-9) instead of Delaware Valley (13-9) in the semifinals.
While Scranton and DelVal have the same overall record, Scranton handled DelVal 59-28 during the Lackawanna League season.
If Williamsport wins the tournament championship, then the last two District 2 teams who lost to the Millionaires will play for the D2-6A crown.
Prediction: Hazleton Area to defeat Williamsport for the title and a spot in states.
CLASS 5A
Defending Champ: none
Outlook: Top-seeded Abington Heights (19-3) is the clear favorite. The Comets will be going for their sixth consecutive District 2 title, winning the 4A crown the past two seasons and the three 3A championships prior to that.
Another group of Comets — the ones from Crestwood (15-7) — is likely the WVC’s best hope. Crestwood plays tenacious defense, but has had difficulty backing up strong regular seasons in the playoffs. The second-seeded Comets haven’t made states since the 2000-09 season.
Fourth-seeded Wyoming Valley West (12-10) is the opposite of Crestwood. The Spartans can put up big numbers on offense, but the defense has been lacking at times. Fifth-seeded Dallas (11-11) had a rough February, but the Mountaineers have been in every game.The teams play in the quarterfinals. Valley West won the regular-season matchup 83-79 on Feb. 2.
Pittston Area (6-16) has pulled off some upsets in recent district play. The Patriots, though, are struggling on offense and have lost nine of their last 10.
Prediction: Abington Heights to defeat Crestwood for the title, with both teams advancing to the state playoffs.
CLASS 4A
Defending Champ: Abington Heights
Outlook: Six of the eight teams are from the WVC and with three teams making states the conference won’t be shut out in states. A new champ will be crowned with Abington Heights now Class 5A.
The class of the field, though, is the Lackawanna League’s Scranton Prep (19-3). The top-seeded Cavaliers’ only losses have been to state powers Hazleton Area, Pottsville and Archbishop Wood. Eighth-seeded Tunkhannock (10-12) gets the first crack at Prep and has lost seven in a row after a solid start.
Fourth-seeded Nanticoke (16-6) vs. Fifth-seeded Wyoming Area (16-6) is a matchup of a game played last week won by Nanticoke 38-35. Expect another close game with a bit more scoring.
Second-seeded Meyers (17-5) closed out its regular season by winning the WVC Division 2 title with a 56-55 victory over Hazleton Area. The Mohawks get No. 7 Valley View (10-12), a young team probably a season away from serious contention.
Third-seeded GAR (16-6) limps into the playoffs off consecutive losses to Wyoming Area and Meyers. The Grenadiers get No. 6 Berwick (15-7), which has won three of its last four after a five-game losing streak. GAR defeated Berwick 54-50 om Feb. 4.
Prediction: Prep to defeat Meyers for the championship, with both advancing to states. GAR over Nanticoke for third place and the district’s final state spot.
CLASS 3A
Defending Champ: Scranton Prep
Outlook: Only two of eight teams make the state playoffs, and top-seeded Mid Valley (20-2) has the makings of claiming one berth. Third-seeded Holy Redeemer (14-8) and fourth-seeded Wyoming Seminary (13-9) are the only WVC teams in the field.
Redeemer appears to have overcome a rough patch in January. The Royals have won eight in a row. They face sixth-seeded Montrose (11-11), which plays in the Lackawanna League’s weakest division. Seminary (13-9) has plenty of close losses on its resume as it takes on No. 5 Carbondale (10-12).
Second-seeded Dunmore (15-7) is better known as a football school, but always puts a tough bunch on the court.
Prediction: Mid Valley to defeat Redeemer for the championship, with both teams moving on to the state tournament.
CLASS 2A
Defending Champ: Meyers
Outlook: Northwest (7-15) is the only WVC team in the field. The sixth-seeded Rangers get third-seeded Mountain View (9-13) in their opener. They could get out of the quarterfinals, but overall the team seems at least a year away. There is plenty of youth on the roster.
Top-seeded Holy Cross (14-7) has a deceiving record. The Crusaders play a rigorous non-league schedule. Second-seeded Blue Ridge (16-6) is the only other team with a winning record.
Prediction: Holy Cross to defeat Blue Ridge for the crown as both advance to states.
CLASS A
Defending Champ: Old Forge
Outlook: District 2 has just two Class A teams and only Susquehanna (8-14) made the field with five District 11 squads.
This doesn’t mean the WVC’s MMI Prep (5-17) is done yet. If Susquehanna loses prior to the final, the Sabres and MMI will play at Mohegan Sun Arena for the D2-A championship. If Susquehanna loses in the D2/11-A championship game, then the Sabres and MMI will play March 6 for the D2-A title.
Prediction: Susquehanna to defeat MMI at the arena for the district title. Neither moves on to states.
